Okay. I know I’m not stirring up much controversy here, but I do have a fun toy to share. I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Tiger would likely hold the number one ranking for most of this year, but that someone might be able to take it in the last couple of months.
I would like to now take that statement back. For someone to be a “Challenger” this year, as defined in my last post, they would need to hold the top spot for ten weeks. That isn’t going to happen.
I put together a spreadsheet that lets you enter the year and week for any point after the British Open. Assuming Tiger has not played, it will show you his projected score for that week. What does it show us? Simple, in week 43 of this year, Tiger will have a score of 14.73. Looking at the World Golf Rankings, that is five points higher than the current number two, Phil Mickelson at 9.64.
In fact, Tiger won’t drop below Phil’s score until Week 8 of 2009. That is the end of February. Tiger won’t drop below 10 until Valentines Day.
Now if Phil isn’t up to the job, there is still the matter of who will step up next. Who knows? There are still 5-6months of golf to play before we can expect someone to charge. Don’t get me wrong, somebody can go on a tear and claim the top spot by year’s end. Tiger will be down to 11.66 in 2009, which is achievable. It will take somebody stepping forward and not everybody taking turns winning.
Let’s see if the PGA Championship can clarify things at all.