Last month I ranked the organizations based upon some prospect lists out there. It wasn’t complete and had obvious room for error, but it was a quick and dirty approach.
Yesterday, Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus completed his ranking of top minor league baseball organizations. I’m going to look at his top 19 (as those are the only ones I can see without paying) and compare them to my list to see how my methodology panned out. You can look at the bottom 15 list as well, the first 4 for free.
|Team||BP Rank||My Rank|
Of the ones that are on both lists, all are within 6 spots of my ranking, though the Mariners are already at least 9 spots out. I measured a standard deviation of 3.9 and an average miss of about 3 spots. Overall I would say that the correlation is pretty good. My bottom 6 didn’t crack his top 19 and our top 7 were the same, though with some changed positions. I did note that as things got further from the top spots the greater the variation between the two.
The Braves and Nationals each moved up one spot. No new news, but no bad news either.
The good news for Nationals’ fans is that the ranking for last year was 30. There is room for hope in a few years. They also have a shot a decent, and signable, pick this June with the number 9 slot. Just think, in 2011 they can be fighting with the Braves and Mets.
Why the Difference in the Two?
The differences seem to fall into two major categories. One is that some organizations with a lot of solid prospects, have a backlog at one position. That hurt an organization in BP’s rating system. The reverse of this is of course the organization with solid prospects everywhere. I may be able to modify my methodology to take this into account to a certain degree. Maybe I can give less credit for each subsequent player at any given position. I’ll have to play with it before next year.
The second major reason that some organizations, like the Athletics, have what is a large number of young talent that will be cracking the top 100 next year. Others, like the Reds, are top heavy. After their big guys, things are a little sparse. That is just a weakness to my methodology. If you want quick and dirty, little things will pop-up.